Stade de la Mosson · Analysis updated 19:47 UTC
Montpellier vs Metz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Montpellier and 0.75 for Metz, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Montpellier the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montpellier home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 35% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Montpellier and 0.75 for Metz, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.2%
- 1–017.2%
- 0–115.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Montpellier
- 2026-10-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenoble · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Reims · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 1-3 (L)
Metz
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sochaux · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint Etienne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs RED Star FC 93 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Nancy | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Reims | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | PAU | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | RED Star FC 93 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Annecy | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Metz | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dijon | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Sochaux | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Rodez | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Boulogne | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Nantes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Grenoble | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 10 | 0 | 7 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Laval | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.