· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Montpellier vs Rodez Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Montpellier and 2.18 for Rodez, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives Montpellier the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montpellier home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rodez away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montpellier to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 20% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Montpellier and 2.18 for Rodez, a combined 4.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–26.2%
- 1–15.7%
- 3–25.5%
Recent form
Montpellier
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Reims · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-0 (W)
Rodez
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenoble · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.