Montrose vs Fraserburgh Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.32 expected goals for Montrose and 1.16 for Fraserburgh, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives Montrose the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Montrose win

78.4% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.32 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Montrose home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montrose to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 12% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.32 goals for Montrose and 1.16 for Fraserburgh, a combined 4.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 66%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Montrose win78%

Draw12%

Fraserburgh win10%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

3–18.0%
2–17.3%
3–06.9%
4–16.7%
2–06.3%

Recent form

Montrose

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ross County · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kelty Hearts · 1-2 (L)

Fraserburgh

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brora Rangers · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Banks O' Dee · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Caledonian Braves · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Challenge Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Clydebank	6	5	1	0	13	16
2	Ross County	6	5	0	1	23	15
3	Airdrie United	6	5	0	1	13	15
4	Cove Rangers	6	5	0	1	12	15
5	Peterhead	6	5	0	1	8	15
6	East Kilbride	6	4	1	1	6	13
7	St. Mirren U21	6	4	0	2	11	12
8	Elgin City	6	4	0	2	11	12
9	Alloa Athletic	6	3	3	0	7	12
10	Hamilton Academical	6	4	0	2	7	12
11	Montrose	6	4	0	2	5	12
12	Celtic II	6	3	3	0	4	12
13	Queen of the South	6	3	2	1	6	11
14	Stirling Albion	6	3	2	1	4	11
15	Aberdeen U21	6	3	1	2	3	10
16	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	6	3	1	2	-2	10
17	Edinburgh City	6	3	1	2	-3	10
18	Berwick Rangers	6	3	1	2	-4	10
19	Annan Athletic	6	2	3	1	4	9
20	Formartine United	6	3	0	3	2	9
21	Spartans	6	2	3	1	2	9
22	Kelty Hearts	6	3	0	3	0	9
23	Hearts U21	6	3	0	3	-12	9
24	Stranraer	6	2	1	3	1	7
25	East Fife	6	2	1	3	0	7
26	Forfar Athletic	6	2	1	3	-3	7
27	Banks O' Dee	6	2	1	3	-6	7
28	Dumbarton	6	2	1	3	-9	7
29	Rangers U21	6	2	0	4	0	6
30	Clyde	6	2	0	4	-4	6
31	Kilmarnock II	6	1	2	3	-5	5
32	Cumbernauld Colts	6	1	2	3	-8	5
33	Clachnacuddin	6	1	1	4	-6	4
34	Fraserburgh	6	1	1	4	-14	4
35	Dundee II	6	1	0	5	-8	3
36	Dundee United II	6	1	0	5	-9	3
37	Gala Fairydean Rovers	6	0	2	4	-14	2
38	Hibernian U21	6	0	1	5	-10	1
39	Cowdenbeath	6	0	0	6	-9	0
40	Motherwell U21	6	0	0	6	-16	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Montrose win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.