Links Park · Analysis updated 03:40 UTC
Montrose vs Queen of the South Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Montrose and 1.58 for Queen of the South, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Montrose the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Montrose win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Montrose home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Queen of the South away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.5%
Recent form
Montrose
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterhead · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ross County · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 0-1 (L)
Queen of the South
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alloa Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ross County · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Montrose 2-1 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Montrose 2-2 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Montrose 3-2 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2025-12-20T15:00:00.000Z · Montrose 0-1 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Montrose 2-1 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Montrose 1-2 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Montrose 0-3 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Montrose 0-1 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2024-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · Montrose 1-0 Queen of the South (League One)
- 2024-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Montrose 3-2 Queen of the South (League One)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 31 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Queen of the South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 13 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montrose win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.