· Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Monza vs Cagliari Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Monza and 0.86 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Monza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.5% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monza home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cagliari away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Monza and 0.86 for Cagliari, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 60.8% vs market 47.4%, edge +13.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 47.4% | 60.8% | 1.64 | +13.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 57.4% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 41.7% | 42.1% | 2.38 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.7% | 69.6% | 1.44 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.6% | 30.4% | 3.29 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.8% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.9% | 72.5% | 1.38 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 52.6% | 39.2% | 2.55 | -13.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Monza
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-3 (L)
Cagliari
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-30T10:30:00.000Z · Monza 0-3 Cagliari (Serie A)
- 2025-01-05T11:30:00.000Z · Monza 1-2 Cagliari (Serie A)
- 2024-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Monza 1-0 Cagliari (Serie A)
- 2023-11-26T11:30:00.000Z · Monza 1-1 Cagliari (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.