· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Monza vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Monza and 2.05 for Frosinone, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Frosinone win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monza home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Frosinone away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Monza
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-3 (L)
Frosinone
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-17T14:00:00.000Z · Monza 2-2 Frosinone (Serie B)
- 2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Monza 1-0 Frosinone (Serie B)
- 2025-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · Monza 0-1 Frosinone (Coppa Italia)
- 2024-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · Monza 0-1 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2024-01-06T14:00:00.000Z · Monza 3-2 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2022-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · Monza 3-2 Frosinone (Coppa Italia)
- 2022-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Monza 1-4 Frosinone (Serie B)
- 2021-12-11T13:00:00.000Z · Monza 3-2 Frosinone (Serie B)
- 2021-03-02T16:00:00.000Z · Monza 2-2 Frosinone (Serie B)
- 2020-11-07T13:00:00.000Z · Monza 2-0 Frosinone (Serie B)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Frosinone win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.