The Mazuma Stadium · Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Morecambe vs Brackley Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Morecambe and 0.98 for Brackley Town, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Morecambe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Morecambe win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morecambe home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brackley Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morecambe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Morecambe and 0.98 for Brackley Town, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Morecambe
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brackley Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southport · 1-2 (L)
Brackley Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs South Shields · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scarborough Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Portchester · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morecambe · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-21T12:00:00.000Z · Morecambe 2-0 Brackley Town (National League)
- 2025-11-18T19:45:00.000Z · Morecambe 2-0 Brackley Town (National League)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macclesfield | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 2 | Hereford | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 4 | King's Lynn Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Chester | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | South Shields | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 7 | Hednesford Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Hebburn Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 18 |
| 9 | Spalding United | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | Chorley | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Buxton | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Bedford Town | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | Worksop Town | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Marine | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 18 | Brackley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 19 | Morecambe | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 20 | Radcliffe | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -6 | 12 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 22 | Southport | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morecambe win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.