Morecambe vs Hereford Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.40 for Hereford, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Hereford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Morecambe home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hereford away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hereford to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Morecambe and 1.40 for Hereford, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Morecambe win34%

Draw26%

Hereford win41%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–19.9%
1–08.8%
1–28.7%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Morecambe

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merthyr Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worksop Town · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford City · 1-1 (D)

Hereford

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hednesford Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stafford Rangers · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Shields · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harborough Town · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hereford	12	8	2	2	17	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	14	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	7	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	3	23
5	King's Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	6	21
6	Hednesford Town	13	6	3	4	4	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	3	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	0	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	0	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	-5	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	6	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	3	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	-1	17
14	Worksop Town	13	5	2	6	-5	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	1	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	-1	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	1	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	-1	15
19	Radcliffe	13	5	0	8	-5	15
20	Brackley Town	13	4	3	6	-9	15
21	AFC Telford United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	-7	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	-10	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	-14	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.