Stadion Topolica · Analysis updated 06:39 UTC
Mornar vs Jezero Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Mornar and 0.85 for Jezero, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Mornar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mornar win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mornar home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jezero away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Mornar
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 2-0 (W)
Jezero
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · Mornar 0-0 Jezero (First League)
- 2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · Mornar 2-0 Jezero (First League)
- 2026-05-06T14:30:00.000Z · Mornar 2-1 Jezero (Cup)
- 2026-04-22T16:30:00.000Z · Mornar 1-0 Jezero (Cup)
- 2026-04-04T17:00:00.000Z · Mornar 2-0 Jezero (First League)
- 2025-12-06T12:30:00.000Z · Mornar 1-2 Jezero (First League)
- 2025-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · Mornar 2-2 Jezero (First League)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Mornar 0-1 Jezero (First League)
- 2025-02-22T13:00:00.000Z · Mornar 2-1 Jezero (First League)
- 2024-10-06T16:00:00.000Z · Mornar 2-0 Jezero (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Sutjeska | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Buducnost Podgorica | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Mornar | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Dečić | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Bokelj | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 8 | Jezero | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mornar win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.