· Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
Morocco B vs Djibouti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Morocco B and 0.68 for Djibouti, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Morocco B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Morocco B win
80.5% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morocco B home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Djibouti away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morocco B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 13% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Morocco B and 0.68 for Djibouti, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.3%
- 3–011.2%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 4–07.7%
Recent form
Morocco B
- 2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djibouti · 7-0 (W)
- 2025-11-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djibouti · 6-0 (W)
- 2025-10-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuwait · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt B · 2-0 (W)
Djibouti
- 2026-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs South Sudan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs South Sudan · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahrain · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco B · 0-7 (L)
- 2025-11-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco B · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z · Morocco B 7-0 Djibouti (Friendlies)
- 2025-11-15T17:00:00.000Z · Morocco B 6-0 Djibouti (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morocco B win, at 80.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.