· Analysis updated 09:00 UTC
Morocco U23 vs Mali U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Morocco U23 and 0.79 for Mali U23, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Morocco U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Morocco U23 win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morocco U23 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mali U23 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morocco U23 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 27% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Morocco U23 and 0.79 for Mali U23, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 58.7% vs market 49.3%, edge +9.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.3% | 58.7% | 1.70 | +9.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.6% | 48.3% | 2.07 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 51.4% | 51.7% | 1.93 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 78.9% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.4% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.2% | 21.0% | 4.76 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.5% | 72.7% | 1.38 | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 41.3% | 2.42 | -9.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Morocco U23
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Comoros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Côte d'Ivoire U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Côte d'Ivoire U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt U23 · 6-0 (W)
Mali U23
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-11-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia U23 · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia U23 · 3-0 (W)
- 2024-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay U23 · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan U23 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · Morocco U23 1-1 Mali U23 (Friendlies)
- 2023-07-04T20:00:00.000Z · Morocco U23 2-2 Mali U23 (CAF U23 Cup of Nations)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morocco U23 win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.