Wanda Metropolitano · Referee José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Morocco vs Ecuador Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Morocco and 0.91 for Ecuador, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Morocco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Morocco win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morocco home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ecuador away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morocco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Morocco and 0.91 for Ecuador, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.7%
Recent form
Morocco
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lesotho · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gabon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 3-0 (W)
Ecuador
- 2026-10-01T10:10:00.000Z · A vs Japan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs South Korea · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-01T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Germany · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Curaçao · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morocco win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.