· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Morocco vs Ghana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Morocco and 0.70 for Ghana, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Morocco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Morocco win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morocco home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ghana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morocco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Morocco and 0.70 for Ghana, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.6%
- 3–010.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.5%
Recent form
Morocco
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lesotho · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gabon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 3-0 (W)
Ghana
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gambia · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivory Coast · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colombia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Croatia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morocco win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.