Khalifa International Stadium · Analysis updated 20:23 UTC
Morocco vs United Arab Emirates Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Morocco and 0.94 for United Arab Emirates, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Morocco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Morocco win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morocco home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
United Arab Emirates away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morocco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Morocco and 0.94 for United Arab Emirates, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Morocco
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lesotho · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gabon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 3-0 (W)
United Arab Emirates
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saudi Arabia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Oman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahrain · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Arab Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morocco win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.