· Analysis updated 15:03 UTC
Morocco W vs Benin W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Morocco W and 0.91 for Benin W, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Morocco W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Morocco W win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morocco W home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benin W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morocco W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Morocco W and 0.91 for Benin W, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Morocco W
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cameroon W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs South Africa W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria W · 1-0 (W)
Benin W
- 2026-07-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cameroon W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U23 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Comoros W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morocco W win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.