· Analysis updated 15:17 UTC
Morrinhos vs Goianésia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Morrinhos and 1.23 for Goianésia, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Morrinhos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morrinhos home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Goianésia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morrinhos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Morrinhos and 1.23 for Goianésia, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Morrinhos
- 2026-10-02T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineiros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Crixás EC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Goiânia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Verde · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Trindade · 2-1 (W)
Goianésia
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bom Jesus EC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Crixás EC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineiros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Verde · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Bom Jesus EC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 9 | Trindade | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 10 | Grêmio Anápolis | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.