Cappielow Park · Referee R. Hardie · Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Morton vs Arbroath Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Morton and 0.99 for Arbroath, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Morton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morton home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arbroath away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Morton and 0.99 for Arbroath, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.7%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Morton
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Inverness CT · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's Park · 1-2 (L)
Arbroath
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.