Cappielow Park · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Morton vs Ayr Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Morton and 1.55 for Ayr Utd, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Ayr Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ayr Utd win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morton home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ayr Utd away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Morton
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Inverness CT · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's Park · 1-2 (L)
Ayr Utd
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Queen's Park · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Morton 1-1 Ayr Utd (Championship)
- 2026-03-21T15:00:00.000Z · Morton 1-0 Ayr Utd (Championship)
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00.000Z · Morton 1-1 Ayr Utd (Championship)
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Morton 1-2 Ayr Utd (Championship)
- 2025-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · Morton 2-2 Ayr Utd (Championship)
- 2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Morton 2-1 Ayr Utd (Championship)
- 2024-12-28T15:00:00.000Z · Morton 0-0 Ayr Utd (Championship)
- 2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Morton 0-2 Ayr Utd (FA Cup)
- 2024-11-08T19:45:00.000Z · Morton 1-1 Ayr Utd (Championship)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Morton 0-1 Ayr Utd (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ayr Utd win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.