Cappielow Park · Referee C. Stirling · Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Morton vs Livingston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Morton and 1.84 for Livingston, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Livingston the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Livingston win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morton home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Livingston away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Livingston to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 18% / 23% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Morton and 1.84 for Livingston, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.8%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–36.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 49.7% vs market 46.7%, edge +3.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 49.7% | 2.01 | +3.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.40 | 39.3% | 40.7% | 2.46 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.2% | 5.49 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.53 | 59.2% | 59.3% | 1.69 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 22.5% | 4.44 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.15 | 82.1% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.6% | 77.5% | 1.29 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 50.3% | 1.99 | -3.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Morton
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Inverness CT · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's Park · 1-2 (L)
Livingston
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Livingston win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.