Cappielow Park · Referee S. Murdoch · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Morton vs Raith Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Morton and 1.65 for Raith Rovers, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Raith Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Raith Rovers win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morton home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Raith Rovers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Raith Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 11% / 23% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Morton and 1.65 for Raith Rovers, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.2%
- 0–215.9%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–38.7%
Recent form
Morton
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Inverness CT · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's Park · 1-2 (L)
Raith Rovers
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Raith Rovers win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.