Morupule Wanderers vs Centre Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Morupule Wanderers and 1.09 for Centre Chiefs, a combined total of 1.89. That distribution gives Centre Chiefs the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

73.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Morupule Wanderers home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Centre Chiefs away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Centre Chiefs to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 26% / 31% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Morupule Wanderers and 1.09 for Centre Chiefs, a combined 1.89 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Morupule Wanderers win26%

Draw31%

Centre Chiefs win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–116.5%
0–015.1%
1–113.2%
1–012.0%
0–29.0%

Recent form

Morupule Wanderers

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Township Rollers · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police XI · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Galaxy · 3-1 (W)

Centre Chiefs

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Extension Gunners · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Extension Gunners · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaborone United · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs BDF XI · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Orapa United · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tonota	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Gaborone United	4	4	0	0	6	12
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	3	2	1	2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Orapa United	6	2	3	1	3	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	2	3	1	-1	9
7	TAFIC	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Police XI	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	2	1	1	1	7
10	Nico United	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	1	2	2	0	5
12	Enesia	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Matebele	6	1	1	4	-3	4
14	BDF XI	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	0	3	2	-4	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.