Moss vs Egersund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Moss and 1.73 for Egersund, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Moss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Moss win

45.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Moss home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Egersund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Moss and 1.73 for Egersund, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Moss win46%

Draw21%

Egersund win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.3%
1–18.1%
2–27.2%
1–27.0%
3–15.7%

Recent form

Moss

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Raufoss · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grorud · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandnes ULF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund · 1-4 (L)

Egersund

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs hodd · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ranheim · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ODD Ballklubb · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs jerv · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Haugesund	26	19	2	5	38	59
2	Stromsgodset	26	17	6	3	38	57
3	Kongsvinger	26	17	5	4	35	56
4	Stabaek	26	15	4	7	29	49
5	ODD Ballklubb	26	13	6	7	14	45
6	Bryne	26	12	3	11	1	39
7	hodd	26	10	5	11	-10	35
8	Egersund	26	9	6	11	-11	33
9	Ranheim	26	9	5	12	-1	32
10	Strommen	26	8	6	12	-12	30
11	Moss	26	8	5	13	-15	29
12	Lyn	26	8	4	14	-17	28
13	Sandnes ULF	26	7	5	14	-13	26
14	Sogndal	25	6	5	14	-17	23
15	Asane	26	6	5	15	-23	23
16	Raufoss	25	6	2	17	-36	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Moss win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.