· Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Mossley vs AFC Emley Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Mossley and 1.03 for AFC Emley, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Mossley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mossley win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mossley home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Emley away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mossley to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Mossley and 1.03 for AFC Emley, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Mossley
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallam · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Emley · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Radcliffe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bootle · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vauxhall Motors · 3-2 (W)
AFC Emley
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs United of Manchester · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rylands · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Workington · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · Mossley 1-0 AFC Emley (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · Mossley 1-3 AFC Emley (FA Cup)
- 2023-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · Mossley 1-1 AFC Emley (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mossley win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.