Stade Belhamiti Larbi · Analysis updated 02:32 UTC
Mostaganem vs El Bayadh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Mostaganem and 1.50 for El Bayadh, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives El Bayadh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
El Bayadh win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mostaganem home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates El Bayadh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Mostaganem and 1.50 for El Bayadh, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–08.2%
Recent form
Mostaganem
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hussein Dey · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Blida · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs El Bayadh · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ben Aknoun · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs USM Alger · 1-1 (D)
El Bayadh
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · Mostaganem 2-2 El Bayadh (Ligue 1)
- 2026-01-08T13:00:00.000Z · Mostaganem 0-1 El Bayadh (Ligue 1)
- 2025-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · Mostaganem 0-0 El Bayadh (Ligue 1)
- 2024-11-30T14:00:00.000Z · Mostaganem 1-1 El Bayadh (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MC Oran | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | JS Kabylie | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | MB Rouisset | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | USM Alger | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Olympique Akbou | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | JS El Biar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Témouchent | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | MC Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Ben Aknoun | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | CS Constantine | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Setif | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | ASO Chlef | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | JS Saoura | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | US Biskra | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is El Bayadh win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.