· Analysis updated 17:47 UTC
Móstoles vs Trival Valderas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Móstoles and 0.89 for Trival Valderas, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Móstoles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Móstoles win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Móstoles home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trival Valderas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Móstoles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Móstoles and 0.89 for Trival Valderas, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Móstoles
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Villanueva Pardillo · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Trival Valderas · 0-1 (L)
Trival Valderas
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Aranjuez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parla Escuela · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Móstoles | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Las Rozas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Colonia Moscardó | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Galapagar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Cala Pozuelo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Unión Adarve | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Trival Valderas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Leganés II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Torrejón | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Aranjuez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Parla Escuela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | SS Reyes II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Alcobendas Sport | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Móstoles win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.