· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Mosul vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Mosul and 1.37 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Al Quwa Al Jawiya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mosul home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Mosul and 1.37 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Mosul
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Karkh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Erbil · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Naft · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Zakho · 1-2 (L)
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mosul · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Diyala · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Zawra'a · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karbala · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Naft | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Al Shorta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Erbil | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Duhok | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Minaa Basra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Al Talaba | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Diyala | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Mosul | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Zakho | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.