· Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
Mosul vs Karbala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Mosul and 1.02 for Karbala, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Mosul the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mosul win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mosul home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mosul to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Mosul and 1.02 for Karbala, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Mosul
- 2026-10-18T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Erbil · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Naft · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Zakho · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newroz · 0-3 (L)
Karbala
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Naft | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Al Shorta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Erbil | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Duhok | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Minaa Basra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Talaba | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Diyala | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Mosul | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Zakho | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mosul win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.