· Analysis updated 15:52 UTC
Mosul vs Naft Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Mosul and 1.20 for Naft, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Mosul the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mosul home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naft away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mosul to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Mosul and 1.20 for Naft, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Mosul
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Naft · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Zakho · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newroz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Zawra'a · 2-2 (D)
Naft
- 2026-10-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Diyala · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Mosul · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Karbala · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Karma · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Minaa Basra · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Naft | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Al Zawra'a | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Erbil | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Shorta | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Duhok | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Diyala | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Minaa Basra | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Al Talaba | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Mosul | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Zakho | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.