Motala vs Stenungsund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Motala and 1.47 for Stenungsund, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Stenungsund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Stenungsund or Draw

64.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Motala win36%

Draw25%

Stenungsund win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–28.6%
0–18.4%
2–18.2%
1–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Stenungsund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Motala and 1.47 for Stenungsund, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Stenungsund or Draw is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Motala

Stenungsund

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Norra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Husqvarna	17	14	3	0	28	45
2	Skara	17	11	4	2	15	37
3	IFK Skövde	17	9	4	4	11	31
4	Ahlafors	17	8	6	3	16	30
5	Grebbestad	17	9	2	6	6	29
6	Stenungsund	17	7	4	6	9	25
7	Herrestads	17	6	6	5	-1	24
8	Motala	17	5	5	7	0	20
9	Kumla	17	5	5	7	-7	20
10	Vänersborgs FK	16	4	4	8	-11	16
11	Tord	17	1	9	7	-10	12
12	Lidköping	16	3	3	10	-18	12
13	IF Karlstad II	16	2	4	10	-13	10
14	Vänersborgs IF	16	2	3	11	-25	9

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.