· Analysis updated 11:03 UTC
Motala vs Vänersborgs IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Motala and 1.60 for Vänersborgs IF, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Motala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Motala win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Motala home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vänersborgs IF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.9%
Recent form
Motala
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ahlafors · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Herrestads · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grebbestad · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kumla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stenungsund · 2-2 (D)
Vänersborgs IF
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Herrestads · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vänersborgs FK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kumla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Motala · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · Motala 3-3 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · Motala 2-0 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2025-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Motala 4-2 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2025-05-18T14:00:00.000Z · Motala 0-3 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2024-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · Motala 2-1 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Motala 0-1 Vänersborgs IF (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
Division 2 - Norra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Skara | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 50 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 46 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Stenungsund | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 7 | Herrestads | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lidköping | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 33 |
| 9 | Vänersborgs FK | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kumla | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -17 | 29 |
| 11 | Motala | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Tord | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -17 | 22 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -21 | 16 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 26 | 2 | 3 | 21 | -50 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Motala win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.