Fir Park · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Motherwell vs Aberdeen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Motherwell and 0.70 for Aberdeen, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Motherwell the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Motherwell win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Motherwell home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aberdeen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Motherwell to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Motherwell and 0.70 for Aberdeen, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Motherwell
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 3-0 (W)
Aberdeen
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Motherwell win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.