Fir Park · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Motherwell and 2.02 for Celtic, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celtic win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Motherwell home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celtic away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–28.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–36.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 41.3% vs market 38.0%, edge +3.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.0% | 41.3% | 2.42 | +3.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.25 | 41.8% | 42.1% | 2.38 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.4% | 78.7% | 1.27 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 20.6% | 20.8% | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.4% | 21.3% | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.60 | 58.0% | 57.9% | 1.73 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 79.8% | 79.2% | 1.26 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.0% | 58.7% | 1.70 | -3.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Motherwell
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 3-0 (W)
Celtic
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 0-2 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2026-05-13T19:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-12-30T20:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-0 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-02-02T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2024-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 0-4 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 0-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2024-02-25T12:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-1 Celtic (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celtic win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.