Motherwell vs Dundee Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Motherwell and 1.48 for Dundee Utd, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Motherwell the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Motherwell win

45.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Motherwell home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dundee Utd away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Motherwell win45%

Draw23%

Dundee Utd win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–19.0%
1–27.4%
1–06.8%
2–26.7%

Recent form

Motherwell

2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 0-4 (L)

Dundee Utd

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Mirren · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-0 Dundee Utd (Premiership)
2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 0-0 Dundee Utd (Premiership)
2025-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-0 Dundee Utd (Premiership)
2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 0-1 Dundee Utd (Premiership)
2024-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 4-3 Dundee Utd (Premiership)
2024-10-30T19:45:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-1 Dundee Utd (Premiership)
2024-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-1 Dundee Utd (League Cup)
2023-05-28T14:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 3-2 Dundee Utd (Premiership)
2023-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-2 Dundee Utd (Premiership)
2022-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-0 Dundee Utd (Premiership)

Premiership table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Celtic	10	9	0	1	19	27
2	Rangers	10	7	2	1	10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	10	6	1	3	7	19
4	Dundee Utd	10	4	3	3	0	15
5	Dundee	10	4	2	4	2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	4	1	5	-7	13
7	Falkirk	10	3	3	4	0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	3	3	4	-4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	3	2	5	-1	11
10	Motherwell	10	2	2	6	-7	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	2	2	6	-13	8
12	Hibernian	10	2	1	7	-6	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Motherwell win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.