Fir Park · Referee C. Graham · Analysis updated 23:45 UTC
Motherwell vs Falkirk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Motherwell and 0.76 for Falkirk, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Motherwell the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Motherwell to Win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–012.4%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–19.4%
Why the model likes this
Motherwell home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Motherwell to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Motherwell and 0.76 for Falkirk, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Recent form
Motherwell
- 2026-08-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HB Torshavn · 3-0 (W)
Falkirk
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.