Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Motherwell and 1.65 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives HJK Helsinki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

HJK Helsinki win

49.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Motherwell home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HJK Helsinki away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HJK Helsinki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Motherwell and 1.65 for HJK Helsinki, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Motherwell win27%

Draw24%

HJK Helsinki win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
0–110.0%
1–29.5%
0–28.3%
1–07.0%

Recent form

Motherwell

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 3-0 (W)

HJK Helsinki

2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs VPS · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-13T18:30:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-0 HJK Helsinki (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-1 HJK Helsinki (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is HJK Helsinki win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.