Fir Park · Referee M. Ocenas · Analysis updated 22:23 UTC
Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Motherwell and 1.65 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives HJK Helsinki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
HJK Helsinki to Win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates HJK Helsinki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Motherwell and 1.65 for HJK Helsinki, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
HJK Helsinki to Win is the headline pick at 49% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Motherwell
HJK Helsinki
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.