Motor Lublin Arena · Referee Tomasz Kwiatkowski, Poland · Analysis updated 08:35 UTC
Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.40 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Motor Lublin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Motor Lublin win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Motor Lublin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jagiellonia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Motor Lublin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.40 for Jagiellonia, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Motor Lublin
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-3 (L)
Jagiellonia
- 2026-10-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Motor Lublin win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.