Motor Lublin Arena · Analysis updated 02:02 UTC
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.77 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Legia Warszawa win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Motor Lublin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Legia Warszawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 2–16.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.00 | 45.4% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +2.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.85 | 23.2% | 24.2% | 4.13 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.73 | 51.6% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 43.8% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 77.0% | 76.6% | 1.31 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.60 | 56.2% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 25.2% | 23.4% | 4.27 | -1.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 77.6% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Motor Lublin
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-3 (L)
Legia Warszawa
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 3-0 Legia Warszawa (Cup)
- 2026-05-23T15:30:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 0-4 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-12-01T18:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 1-1 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-03-10T18:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 3-3 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-09-01T12:45:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 2-5 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-12-10T11:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 0-4 Legia Warszawa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-01T15:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 3-2 Legia Warszawa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-12-01T19:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 1-2 Legia Warszawa (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Legia Warszawa win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.