Motor Lublin Arena · Referee Jaroslaw Przybyl, Poland · Analysis updated 21:56 UTC
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.53 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Legia Warszawa win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Motor Lublin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Legia Warszawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Motor Lublin
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-3 (L)
Legia Warszawa
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 3-0 Legia Warszawa (Cup)
- 2026-05-23T15:30:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 0-4 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-12-01T18:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 1-1 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-03-10T18:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 3-3 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-09-01T12:45:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 2-5 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-12-10T11:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 0-4 Legia Warszawa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-01T15:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 3-2 Legia Warszawa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-12-01T19:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 1-2 Legia Warszawa (Cup)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wieczysta Kraków | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Legia Warszawa win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.