Motor Lublin Arena · Analysis updated 16:26 UTC
Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.35 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Motor Lublin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Motor Lublin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wisla Plock away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Motor Lublin
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 0-2 (L)
Wisla Plock
- 2026-09-20T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Luzino · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T12:45:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 4-0 Wisla Plock (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-11-08T16:30:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 1-1 Wisla Plock (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 2-2 Wisla Plock (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-10T12:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 2-1 Wisla Plock (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 0-1 Wisla Plock (I Liga)
- 2023-11-05T17:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 2-2 Wisla Plock (I Liga)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.