Motril vs Alhaurino Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Motril and 0.77 for Alhaurino, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Motril the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Motril win

54.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Motril home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alhaurino away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Motril to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 26% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Motril and 0.77 for Alhaurino, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Motril win54%

Draw26%

Alhaurino win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.5%
1–112.0%
2–011.5%
0–010.4%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Motril

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD San Pedro · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alhaurino · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torre del Mar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo Huelva · 0-2 (L)

Alhaurino

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Melilla · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Motril · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Churriana Vega · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almería II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada II · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Melilla	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Almería II	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Marbelli	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	Motril	6	3	3	0	4	12
6	Málaga II	6	3	1	2	6	10
7	Granada II	6	3	1	2	4	10
8	Churriana Vega	6	3	0	3	3	9
9	UD San Pedro	6	3	0	3	-3	9
10	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Torre del Mar	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Alhaurino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	2	1	3	-8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Cantoria	6	0	3	3	-6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Malaga City	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Motril win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.