Mousehole vs Swindon Supermarine Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Mousehole and 1.73 for Swindon Supermarine, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Swindon Supermarine the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mousehole home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Swindon Supermarine away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swindon Supermarine to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Mousehole and 1.73 for Swindon Supermarine, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Mousehole win38%

Draw23%

Swindon Supermarine win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.6%
1–28.3%
2–18.1%
2–27.0%
0–15.8%

Recent form

Mousehole

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Larkhall Athletic · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Didcot Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Portishead Town · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Falmouth Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Melksham Town · 0-0 (D)

Swindon Supermarine

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Winslow United · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winslow United · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slimbridge · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-07T15:00:22.000Z · Mousehole 1-1 Swindon Supermarine (Non League Div One - Southern South)
2025-11-08T15:00:09.000Z · Mousehole 3-0 Swindon Supermarine (Non League Div One - Southern South)

Non League Div One - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Frome Town	42	32	6	4	65	102
2	Portishead Town	42	30	5	7	73	95
3	Malvern Town	42	30	5	7	42	95
4	Winchester City	42	24	10	8	40	82
5	Shaftesbury Town	42	25	4	13	27	79
6	Bishop's Cleeve	42	23	9	10	18	78
7	Hartpury University	42	20	7	15	28	67
8	Exmouth	42	18	7	17	2	61
9	Larkhall Athletic	42	18	7	17	0	61
10	Westbury United	42	17	7	18	-3	58
11	Sporting Club Inkberrow	42	16	7	19	-14	54
12	Didcot Town	42	14	8	20	-17	50
13	Swindon Supermarine	42	13	11	18	2	50
14	Falmouth Town	42	13	10	19	-16	49
15	Bristol Manor Farm	42	12	12	18	-20	48
16	Bideford	42	13	9	20	-28	48
17	Melksham Town	42	11	12	19	-18	45
18	Mousehole	42	11	13	18	-10	45
19	Willand Rovers	42	11	10	21	-20	43
20	Bashley	42	10	7	25	-22	37
21	Brixham	42	10	6	26	-45	36
22	Tavistock	42	3	4	35	-84	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.