· Analysis updated 12:22 UTC
Moyola Park vs Glenavon FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Moyola Park and 1.85 for Glenavon FC, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Glenavon FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Glenavon FC win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moyola Park home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Glenavon FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Glenavon FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 20% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Moyola Park and 1.85 for Glenavon FC, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.7%
- 1–110.7%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 46.7% vs market 41.6%, edge +5.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 41.6% | 46.7% | 2.14 | +5.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.30 | 41.0% | 42.7% | 2.34 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.6% | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 1.55 | 57.3% | 57.3% | 1.75 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 4.33 | 20.5% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 80.5% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.5% | 77.4% | 1.29 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.4% | 53.3% | 1.88 | -5.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Moyola Park
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Glenavon FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 1-4 (L)
Glenavon FC
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Loughgall · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballinamallard United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Ballinamallard United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Queen's University | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Loughgall | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Ards | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | H&W Welders | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Glenavon FC win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.