Mill Meadow · Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
Moyola Park vs Knockbreda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Moyola Park and 0.89 for Knockbreda, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Moyola Park the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Moyola Park win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moyola Park home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Knockbreda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moyola Park to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Moyola Park and 0.89 for Knockbreda, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Moyola Park
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughgall · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Glenavon FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
Knockbreda
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portstewart · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-23T17:45:05.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T17:45:35.000Z · H vs Oxford Sunnyside · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Intermediate League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strabane Athletic | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 48 |
| 2 | Dollingstown | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Moyola Park | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 43 |
| 4 | Rathfriland | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 41 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 41 |
| 6 | Ballymacash Rangers | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 40 |
| 7 | Dergview | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 8 | Ballyclare Comrades | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Oxford Sunnyside | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 35 |
| 10 | Portstewart | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Knockbreda | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 33 |
| 12 | Coagh United | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -19 | 27 |
| 13 | Lisburn Distillery | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 25 |
| 14 | Banbridge Town | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | -79 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Moyola Park win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.