Mill Meadow · Analysis updated 09:12 UTC
Moyola Park vs Lisburn Distillery Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Moyola Park and 1.63 for Lisburn Distillery, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Moyola Park the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Moyola Park win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moyola Park home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lisburn Distillery away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Moyola Park
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughgall · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Glenavon FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
Lisburn Distillery
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymacash Rangers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:55.000Z · H vs Knockbreda · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:45.000Z · H vs Dergview · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 6-0 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2025-11-01T13:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 2-1 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2025-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 2-2 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2025-01-21T19:45:00.000Z · Moyola Park 3-3 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2024-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 2-0 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2024-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 1-5 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2023-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 1-0 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2022-10-08T14:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 0-1 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2022-04-23T14:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 1-2 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2022-02-12T15:00:00.000Z · Moyola Park 1-4 Lisburn Distillery (Premier Intermediate League)
Premier Intermediate League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strabane Athletic | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 48 |
| 2 | Dollingstown | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Moyola Park | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 43 |
| 4 | Rathfriland | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 41 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 41 |
| 6 | Ballymacash Rangers | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 40 |
| 7 | Dergview | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 8 | Ballyclare Comrades | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Oxford Sunnyside | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 35 |
| 10 | Portstewart | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Knockbreda | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 33 |
| 12 | Coagh United | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -19 | 27 |
| 13 | Lisburn Distillery | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 25 |
| 14 | Banbridge Town | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | -79 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Moyola Park win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.