Free State Toyota Stadium · Referee Mweshitsama Negongo Naftal · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Mozambique vs Mauritius Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mozambique and 1.26 for Mauritius, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Mozambique the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mozambique home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mozambique to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Mozambique and 1.26 for Mauritius, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Mozambique
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Senegal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oman · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-01-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nigeria · 0-4 (L)
Mauritius
- 2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sri Lanka · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sri Lanka · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Somalia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Somalia · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Libya · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-06-07T10:00:00.000Z · Mozambique 0-0 Mauritius (COSAFA Cup)
- 2023-07-12T13:00:00.000Z · Mozambique 1-0 Mauritius (COSAFA Cup)
- 2019-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · Mozambique 2-0 Mauritius (World Cup - Qualification Africa)
- 2019-09-04T00:00:00.000Z · Mozambique 1-0 Mauritius (World Cup - Qualification Africa)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.