MP vs EIF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for MP and 1.25 for EIF, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives MP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MP home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
EIF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for MP and 1.25 for EIF, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

MP win43%

Draw25%

EIF win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–09.6%
2–19.0%
0–18.0%
1–27.5%

Recent form

2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs JIPPO · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK Akatemia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Haka · 2-0 (W)

EIF

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KäPa · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Klubi-04 · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK Akatemia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ykkösliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kooteepee	27	18	5	4	22	59
2	PK-35	27	15	7	5	21	52
3	Haka	27	14	5	8	20	47
4	JIPPO	27	13	8	6	16	47
5	JäPS	27	12	2	13	-16	38
6	EIF	27	9	5	13	-14	32
7	MP	27	8	6	13	-9	30
8	Klubi-04	27	6	9	12	0	27
9	KäPa	27	6	7	14	-16	25
10	SJK Akatemia	27	3	8	16	-24	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.