Mikkelin Urheilupuisto · Referee A. Hajizadeh · Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
MP vs JIPPO Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for MP and 1.70 for JIPPO, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives JIPPO the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
JIPPO win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MP home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
JIPPO away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
MP
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs JIPPO · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK Akatemia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Haka · 2-0 (W)
JIPPO
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MP · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · MP 1-0 JIPPO (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-07-15T15:30:00.000Z · MP 1-3 JIPPO (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · MP 1-3 JIPPO (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-04-14T15:00:00.000Z · MP 2-1 JIPPO (Suomen Cup)
- 2026-02-14T15:30:00.000Z · MP 1-3 JIPPO (Ykköscup)
- 2024-08-10T13:00:00.000Z · MP 4-2 JIPPO (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-06-19T15:30:00.000Z · MP 0-0 JIPPO (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-04-24T15:30:00.000Z · MP 1-1 JIPPO (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-02-24T10:00:00.000Z · MP 0-2 JIPPO (Ykköscup)
- 2023-03-18T10:15:00.000Z · MP 3-1 JIPPO (Friendlies Clubs)
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is JIPPO win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.