Mikkelin Urheilupuisto · Referee V. Smirnov · Analysis updated 01:47 UTC
MP vs KäPa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for MP and 1.07 for KäPa, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives MP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
MP to Win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.5%
Why the model likes this
KäPa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for MP and 1.07 for KäPa, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
MP
KäPa
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs EIF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs MP · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Haka · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.