Mikkelin Urheilupuisto · Referee V. Smirnov · Analysis updated 07:17 UTC
MP vs KäPa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for MP and 1.16 for KäPa, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives MP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MP win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MP home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KäPa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for MP and 1.16 for KäPa, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
MP
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs JIPPO · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK Akatemia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Haka · 2-0 (W)
KäPa
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Klubi-04 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MP win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.