MP vs SJK Akatemia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for MP and 1.30 for SJK Akatemia, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives MP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MP home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SJK Akatemia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

MP win44%

Draw25%

SJK Akatemia win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.6%
2–19.1%
1–08.9%
1–27.5%
0–17.3%

Recent form

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs JäPS · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs JIPPO · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK Akatemia · 1-1 (D)

SJK Akatemia

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs KäPa · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MP · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · MP 1-1 SJK Akatemia (Ykkösliiga)
2026-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · MP 0-1 SJK Akatemia (Ykkösliiga)
2024-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · MP 2-2 SJK Akatemia (Ykkösliiga)
2024-07-27T13:00:00.000Z · MP 1-2 SJK Akatemia (Ykkösliiga)
2024-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · MP 0-0 SJK Akatemia (Ykkösliiga)
2023-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · MP 1-4 SJK Akatemia (Ykkönen)
2023-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · MP 2-2 SJK Akatemia (Ykkönen)
2023-08-05T13:00:00.000Z · MP 0-2 SJK Akatemia (Ykkönen)
2023-05-25T15:30:00.000Z · MP 2-0 SJK Akatemia (Ykkönen)
2022-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · MP 1-2 SJK Akatemia (Ykkönen)

Ykkösliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kooteepee	27	18	5	4	22	59
2	PK-35	27	15	7	5	21	52
3	Haka	27	14	5	8	20	47
4	JIPPO	27	13	8	6	16	47
5	JäPS	27	12	2	13	-16	38
6	EIF	27	9	5	13	-14	32
7	MP	27	8	6	13	-9	30
8	Klubi-04	27	6	9	12	0	27
9	KäPa	27	6	7	14	-16	25
10	SJK Akatemia	27	3	8	16	-24	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.