Národné tréningové centrum SFZ · Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
MŠK Senec vs Gabčíkovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for MŠK Senec and 1.10 for Gabčíkovo, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives MŠK Senec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MŠK Senec win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MŠK Senec home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gabčíkovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MŠK Senec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for MŠK Senec and 1.10 for Gabčíkovo, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
MŠK Senec
- 2026-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Beluša · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nové Zámky · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Veľké Ludince · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Myjava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 0-5 (L)
Gabčíkovo
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Trenčín II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nové Zámky · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veľké Ludince · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Púchov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nitra | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 34 |
| 2 | Dunajská Lužná | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Púchov | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Spartak Myjava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Beluša | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Nové Zámky | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Gabčíkovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Baník Prievidza | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | DAC II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Trenčín II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Komárno II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
| 12 | MŠK Senec | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 13 |
| 13 | Častkovce | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | Rača | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 15 | Veľké Ludince | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MŠK Senec win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.